COVID testing

General media sources, such as the NY Times, have started posting population-adjusted COVID-19 case and testing data. So, I’m no longer going to do it.

The big question I have, which so far I have not seen addressed by media coverage, is why Minnesota’s testing rate is stagnant (slightly dropping, actually). As I track the data, many other states are ramping up testing, while Minnesota testing rate is not. Minnesota continues to have low case numbers (fourth lowest state on a population-adjusted basis, only Montana, Hawaii, and Alaska are lower), but that ranking is probably meaningless given that Minnesota is testing at about 2/3 the national rate. (Three weeks ago it was close to the national average.) The natural conclusion is that Minnesota’s low case numbers are too low, compared with that in other states with higher testing levels.

The graph below shows the daily number of tests reported by MDH for April, which reveals – despite the day-to-day fluctuations – a consistent, slight decline since the first part of the month.

This is particularly troubling because robust testing is crucial to further loosening of the stay-at-home order and allowing more normal economic and social activity. Something needs to change and the sooner the better.