COVID Update

I have sworn off blogging about COVID, but I just can’t help myself.

On Mondays, the Minnesota Department of Health (MDH) puts out a COVID-19 Vaccine Breakthrough Weekly Update, which reports the number of fully vaccinated people who test positive, are hospitalized, and die. It shows the percentages of the population by age groups graphically (in bar charts) in each of those categories and demonstrates that only small percentages of the vaccinated population test positive, are hospitalized (smaller yet), and die (even smaller).

What it does not show are the percentages of those groups that are vaccinated versus unvaccinated. For example, what percentage of those who died were vaccinated. Those percentages, by their nature, will be much higher because the denominators are lower. I understand the decision to do that (or assume that I do): given how the vaccines have become so politicized, the public health professionals do not want to put out information that could discourage the hesitant from becoming vaccinated. I agree with that. It’s also true that the exact denominator to use is unclear, because the appropriate period depends upon when one assumes the population could have been vaccinated.

But the downside is that it might cause the vaccinated to think they are at lower risk than they really are. To illustrate, this Monday’s report shows that 839 of Minnesota’s COVID-19 deaths were in fully vaccinated individuals. MDH separately reports that there have been just over 4,000 COVID-19 deaths in Minnesota in 2021. Thus, almost 21% of 2021 Minnesota COVID deaths have been of fully vaccinated people.  (That overstates the period in which the population could be fully vaccinated since the vaccines only became generally available in February 2021 and it took several months to vaccinate the willing. The real percentage is higher!) I don’t think most people realize the number is that high. I cannot recall seeing it reported in general news media. It certainly has not gotten much play to the extent it has been reported.

Vaccines reduce the risk of infection, serious illness, and death – especially the latter two – but they do not eliminate it. Thus, it is crucial for the vaccinated to remain vigilant about avoiding infections – wearing masks, socially distancing, avoiding large indoor gatherings, etc. There still is risk involved for fully vaccinated people, especially for elderly and those with comorbidities (diabetes, high blood pressure, etc.). My fear is that the public health community’s PR spin on breakthrough cases to avoid discouraging the hesitant from getting vaccinated may have an unintended and undesirable side effect of creating overconfidence among the vaccinated as to their immunity. The rise of variants makes this more worrisome.

A story in today’s STRIB (buried multiple graphs down) does make the point about the risk involved with breakthrough infections:

Fully vaccinated Minnesotans only made up 32% of coronavirus infections and 35% of COVID-19 deaths from May through September, but they made up 43% of infections and 45% of COVID-19 deaths in the five-week period ending Nov. 13, according to the most recent state data on Monday.

Relative risks remain highest among the roughly 1 million unvaccinated Minnesotans, who make up the majority of COVID-19 cases and deaths even though they make up one third of the state’s population.

Jeremy Olson, Minnesota sees post-holiday COVID-19 surge, hopes for peak

The main stream media stories (e.g., Unvaccinated patients are filling Minnesota’s intensive care units) correctly hammer at the risk to the unvaccinated. Unfortunately, the unvaccinated largely consume right wing media (Fox, Newsmax, Epoch Times, etc.), which do not do that. So, the risk is that the vaccinated are lulled into overconfidence by the MSM coverage.

In any case, continued COVID caution for the vaccinated, especially by oldsters like me, is advised.