Categories
income tax

More revenues and PTE entity tax popularity

MMB January 2022 quarterly report is out and shows revenue in the last two months of 2021 above forecast by $833 million. Much of the variance results from timing issues according to MMB, rather than from higher-than-expected levels of economic activity (growth), a common issue with end-of-year data. Omicron and other factors have caused IHS Markit, the state’s economic consultant, to reduce its macro forecast of growth for the forecast window. IHS will make one more revision before the February forecast used by the legislature to write the 2022 supplemental budget. But lower macro growth estimates are highly likely. So, that may take away some of the additional money that results from higher economic activity.

Over half of the variance, according to MMB, reflects the 2021 law allowing pass through entities (PTEs), partnerships and S corporations, to pay an entity level tax that will (likely) qualify for the federal SALT deduction. MMB assumes that some PTEs paid the final estimated payment in 2021 rather than waiting until that payment was due in January. That will accelerate the tax benefit of the deduction by a year for cash basis taxpayers and TCJA allowed a lot more businesses to report on a cash basis.

Under the PTE entity tax, these payments ($74 million for partnerships and $397 million for S corps according to MMB’s estimates) are credits against the owners’ individual tax liability. So, they will reduce income tax payments or increase refunds in spring 2022. MMB says it thinks the November forecast accurately accounted for the underlying tax liability, so it’s a timing issue. The implication is they misestimated some combination of (1) how popular the PTE entity election would be and (2) how many of the electing PTEs would accelerate the payments in 2021. I would guess it’s mainly the former.

These big numbers show:

  • Just how popular the PTE entity tax election is right out of the gate, even before the IRS has put out proposed regs (That shouldn’t be a surprise since federal deductibility potentially cuts the real burden of state tax liability by 25% or more.)
  • The resulting high federal revenue cost of allowing deductibility (i.e., the partial unravelling of yet another of TJCA’s payfors)
  • The unevenness (violating horizontal equity) of TCJA’s SALT cap, treating PTE owners differently than wage earners and direct investors because of their respective income sources and/or organizational choices
  • A regressive, albeit unintended, feature of the SALT cap, since most PTE owners have higher incomes (A lot of ink has been spilled about the regressivity of uncapping or expanding the SALT deduction as the Dems in Congress are now proposing. See, e.g., here (TPC), here (Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget), here (CBPP) for commentary on that. All true but those estimates surely did not account for PTE entity tax deductibility’s effects.)

I have been waiting to see what Congress does about the SALT cap – assuming it passes a version of Biden’s BBB legislation, no longer a sure thing – before commenting. Proposals so far (e.g., the House passed version) do not qualify as reform or improvements by my lights. Game playing and deform are more accurate characterizations. Nor have I heard of a move to limit deductibility of elective PTE entity taxes in a restructuring, but only D.C. insiders would likely know about that. Seems like a natural thing to consider under the circumstances. Alan Viard has usefully laid out some of theoretical issues regarding how to appropriately treat deductibility of business taxes. Rethinking the State and Local Business Tax Deduction, Tax Notes Federal, pp. 1261-71 (Nov. 29, 2021). Including some of those ideas would be useful in an overall fix of the deduction.

Update 2/18/2022

The beat goes on

MMB has released the January revenue review (2/10/2022). It shows a continuation of the surge in revenues. January receipts are up $649 million over forecast. Almost all the variance is from the corporate ($642 million).

This appears to be a continuation of the PTE story. Individual income tax receipts for January were down $42 million from the November forecast amount. That likely reflects the lower fourth quarter estimated payments (due in January) by electing PTE owners, which instead show as corporate receipts. Net that out and corporate receipts for November, December, and January are still up by more than $1.1 billion over the November forecast. (Context: Corporate collections for FY 2022 were forecast to be $2.3 billion.) Individual income receipts for the three months are up a much more modest $200 million on a much larger base ($14 billion).

Something more than just higher than expected PTE elections must be going on. I would speculate that some combination of higher profits of traditional C corporations and higher income of PTEs is driving this. It suggests to me that, notwithstanding a lower macroeconomic growth forecast, the February forecast will not reduce the surplus by that much. I don’t know what IHS Markit’s most recent GDP estimates are, but Omicron’s drag potential does not appear to be as big as a few weeks ago. But now we have a potential war in Ukraine. There is always something, it seems.

Categories
estate tax income tax

January miscellaneous stuff

This post is a cats-and-dogs collection of stuff that I read last month and wanted to archive and highlight. A couple relate to one another, the rest are just random pieces that interested me:

  • Proposal to use the SALT deduction tax expenditure for a State Macroeconomic Insurance Fund
  • Taxpayer Advocate’s 2020 annual report
  • Taxing corporate stock buybacks
  • Taxing capital gains on death
  • Due process limits on state estate taxation of QTIPs
  • PPP loan forgiveness taxation (yet again)

Redeploying SALT deduction tax expenditure

I previously blogged about the cap on the SALT deduction. I don’t like either the current or the earlier, uncapped version of the deduction. Neither passes a rudimentary test of good policy. Restoration of the uncapped SALT deduction has history, inertia, and congressional Democrats behind it (restoration was in the HEROES Act but is not in the Biden virus relief plan).

Len Burman, Tracy Gordon, and Nikhita Airi, three TPC staffers, have a proposal out to instead use those dollars (the tax expenditure cost of restoring the uncapped deduction) to fund a countercyclical state aid fund, which they call the State Macroeconomic Insurance Fund (SMIF). You can read the outline in this Tax Vox blog post or listen to Gordon present it in this Brookings webinar (the rest of the presentations are also worth a listen). Their proposal is well-thought out and makes sense as a way to address the policy problems created by the impact of recessions on state and local governments, given their balanced budget requirements, the practical and political difficulties of maintaining adequate reserves, the feedback effect of laying off government employees deepening recessions, and the negative macro-economic effects of state tax increases in a recession. (Federal conformity, as I have pointed out, can also create problems – especially for states with rolling conformity but even for those who conform on a static basis.)

Their proposal puts the amount of revenues that otherwise would be lost from restoration of the uncapped SALT deduction in a federal fund that automatically pays federal aid to states in recessions, scaled to how hard the recession affects the state under neutral measures such as increasing unemployment. The aid could be used to leverage or encourage the maintenance state reserves by requiring states to fund their reserves to qualify for more federal aid. Their blog post is short for anyone interested in more detail.

Like many good tax policy ideas this one has no political viability (the webinar discusses that with a wishy-washy Pollyanna response):

  • It will be a no-go for Republicans; they will likely view it as a blue state bailout (if their response to the proposals to pay coronavirus aid to replace lost states revenues is any guide) even though much of the aid would go to red states they represent (same would be true of coronavirus aid). Moreover, after 2025 (when the cap on the SALT deduction expires), it would violate Grover Norquist’s tax pledge (i.e., they would view it as a tax increase because the cap would stay in place and the resulting revenues used to fund the account would be a tax increase for government spending) and be verboten on that basis.
  • Democrats will oppose it because most of the revenue will come from blue state taxpayers who are the predominant beneficiaries of an uncapped SALT deduction and the benefits of the spending will be spread over all states, red and blue (a good thing, of course, but not what Chuck and Nancy would want). Democrats will also not like it because it strips away the buffering effect that an uncapped SALT deduction has on high state and local taxes for their affluent constituents (donors). That is likely a prime reason that Republicans capped the deduction in the first place.

But it is still worth reading and dreaming about what could be possible in a parallel universe – e.g., if Congress focused on good policy, rather than what is politically appealing and what each party’s political priors and base tell it to do. The Minnesota legislature did that in the late 1960s and early 1970s when it came together on a bipartisan basis and enacted fiscal disparities, the Metropolitan Council, the Pollution Control Agency, the Minnesota Miracle, and so on. It is nice to dream but then you wake up and move on.

Taxpayer Advocate’s annual report

The Taxpayer Advocate’s 2020 report is available on the IRS website; it is great reading for tax nerds like me. I always learn something, often a lot, by skimming through parts of it. For example, it costs the IRS $4.78 to process a paper return and $0.18 for an electronic return. The IRS annually spends $37 million handling, shipping, storing, and retrieving data from paper returns. More than one-half of paper returns are prepared using tax software. (I assume most of them are filed as paper returns because they did not meet the IRS efiling tests or the taxpayers were unwilling to pay efiling fees to software firms.) IRS employees manually enter data from returns, such as the 1040, leading to transcription errors. (All the preceding is from this document.) The challenges the IRS faces in this environment are daunting to put it mildly. Woe be it to you, if you are owed a refund and your return was flagged for some (potentially innocent) reason. It may be a while before you get your refund.

The Purple Book is chocked full of good suggestions for improving the IRS’s performance and the tax system. The recommendations to Congress typically go unheeded, such as to appropriate adequate funds for IRS’s operations and to modernize its antiquated IT systems. At a minimum the IRS needs a system that scans returns so employees no longer need to manually type in names and numbers off of 1040s and its myriad schedules (at least for those prepared by software).

Interesting but sobering reading – core administrative functions for our tax system, essential to the operation of government, are teetering on the brink while Congress fiddles. Maybe with the change in administrations and in control of the Senate, things will improve. I’m not holding my breath. In any case, it is going to take a sustained, multi-year effort to rebuild the agency. Politics militate against any kind of sustained effort with a low-visibility payoff.

Time to tax stock buybacks?

Several of the Democrats running for president (but not Biden) proposed taxing corporate buybacks. In the last few years I was working I occasionally got questions about the possibility/advisability of doing that (a few times from legislators). I always pooh-poohed it and counseled against it – if excessive buybacks were a problem (unclear to me), my perception was that it was best not to address through the tax system and certainly not at the state level. Once capital gains and dividend taxation were equalized (in 2003 at the federal level and in 1987 in Minnesota but in different ways), I didn’t think there was any tax inequity or problem involved.

This article by two tax professors, Daniel Hemel and Greg Polsky, Taxing Buybacks, Yale Journal on Regulation, vol 38 (2021), has caused me to rethink that and conclude that there is good case to be made for changing the rules on how buybacks are taxed. It’s obviously not going to happen with this Congress or probably ever, but the article is worth reading if only to understand the nuances of the tax rules and the economics of buybacks. They resurrect and tweak a proposal by a legendary tax professor, Marvin Chirelstein, from a 1969 Yale Law Journal article – back then the differential treatment of dividends (ordinary income) and long-term capital gains (partial exclusion) provided justification for changing the rules. Since that is no longer the case, they need to and do repurpose his proposal.

Hemel and Polsky point out that adapting Chirelstein’s proposal (essentially taxing buybacks as deemed dividends paid to all shareholders pro rata; they add a tweak of requiring cash payment of a dividend equal to the tax on the deemed dividend to address the “phantom income” resulting from a deemed dividend) would help address two problems:

  • The “Zuckerberg Problem” (a term coined by Ed Kleinbard) – i.e., that large amounts of labor income embedded in founders’ stock (hence, the term from the founder of Facebook; you could use Elon Musk, Bill Gates, or a host of others with large or small fortunes) goes untaxed because of the step-up in basis on death or on charitable contribution of the stock to tax exempt foundations. Those folks largely escape income taxation on vast fortunes by following what Ed McCaffery calls the Buy/Borrow/Die tax avoidance plan. I was aware of this problem but never thought of taxing buybacks to get at it. See the next topic below for a more direct and complete way to address that, though. Hemel and Polsky point out that the two approaches are complementary to one another. Carried interest presents a similar problem that has attracted more political attention and Congress appears unwilling to act – just to provide a dose of political reality as an aside.
  • The “Panama Papers Problem” – that is, that tax haven investors hold large amounts of US publicly traded stock (about 9% by some estimates). These holders are often tax cheats as the Panama Papers have revealed. When dividends are paid, they don’t escape taxation because dividends paid to foreign investors are subject to mandatory 30% withholding. Capital gains, by contrast, escape taxation. Converting buybacks to dividends (per Cherelstein’s proposal) for tax purposes would end that and generate a fair amount of revenue. The authors estimate $27 billion/year (probably high because behavioral responses would cut into that as they migrate to other avoidance mechanisms). A surfeit of revenue would also be generated by tax on other foreign investors in OCED countries.

Taxing unrealized gains at death or on gift

In their article, Hemel and Polsby observe that “The most straightforward way to address ‘Buy/Borrow/Die’ is to repeal section 1014, the code provision that allows for stepped-up basis at death. We agree with that prescription, and Chirelstein did too.” (p. 300, footnotes omitted). Harry L Gutman, Taxing Gains at Death (Tax Notes Federal, Jan. 8, 2021), describes how to do that in way that may be more politically palatable than his experience with the 1970s enactment of carryover basis. Unlike most Tax Analyst content, the Gutman article is ungated.

Carryover basis was enacted in the 1976 Tax Reform Act but was repealed before it became effective. (Taxing gains at death and adjusting the estate tax is preferable to carryover basis in Gutman’s view. I agree.) Gutman was at Treasury during the Carter administration and directly involved in the attempt to implement and unsuccessfully defend that regime. As a result, he brings a host of knowledge of what is practical and political possible. However, he recognizes the political challenges, characterizing his effort as a decision “to mount Rocinante and tilt at this particular windmill.” Gutman has been a private tax lawyer at a DC law firm since leaving Treasury (I believe without checking that).

This – like taxing corporate buybacks – was a proposal of various Democratic presidential candidates, including Biden. Gutman points out that it has been proposed by both Democratic and Republican administrations (most recently by Obama). Carryover basis was signed into law by President Ford. But Ford would likely be unwelcome in today’s Republican Party.

None of the campaigns provided any details on how they would have actually done it, of course. Gutman does that and his experience defending carryover basis makes him especially competent to focus on the possible and practical (second best solutions), rather than the typical tax professor type who focuses on the theoretical best solution. None of this will happen, of course, with an equally divided Senate and the thinnest of majorities for the Democrats in the House. In my opinion, it would be one of the most desirable reforms Congress could enact and would allow further deemphasizing or even repealing the estate tax. If enacted, it would enable states like Minnesota to conform and, then, repeal or dramatically reduce their estate taxes; stepped-up basis is the strongest argument for maintaining an estate tax. It’s why the double taxation argument typically raised against estate taxation is flawed – unrealized appreciation on which income tax was never paid is the largest component of taxable estates, especially the really big ones. A prime function of the estate tax is as a backup to the income tax; a function it doesn’t perform well with the current gargantuan exemption ($11.7 million). Because Gutman’s version would apply (as would any sensible alternative proposal) to inter vivos gifts, it would solve the problem that almost all state estate taxes have – no complementary gift tax (Connecticut is the exception). The lack of a gift tax allows the very richest to dramatically minimize state estate taxation by transferring much of their estates via gift.  My 2019 post, Tale of Two Billionaires, provides an example of this (i.e., Carl Pohlad v. James Binger).

Gutman focuses a lot of his attention on transition rules and hard to value assets, such as closely held businesses, other than marketable securities. On the latter, he would defer tax until the property is sold or transferred. His experience (consistent with my legislative experience) suggests that being flexible on transition rules is often a key to a politically viable proposal. Tellingly to me, he observes (in the last footnote to the article): “It is my understanding that had Treasury agreed to apply carryover basis only to assets acquired after the effective date, the provision would not have been repealed. And today, 40 years after its repeal, it would be virtually universally applicable.” If valid, that is a testament to short-sightedness of its advocates in the 1970s, that is, of the best being the enemy of the good. When Canada implemented its system, it gave up taxing appreciation that had occurred before enactment (Gutman does not mention that; his proposal is even more generous in grandfathering assets, not just appreciation).

A couple of Gutman’s quotes are worth repeating:

The Joint Committee on Taxation lists more than 230 income tax provisions as tax expenditures. An economic or social policy objective can be cited for virtually all of them. However, try as one might, no one can create a plausible tax, social, or economic policy justification for tax-free step-up.

That might be a bit of an overstatement (there are some other tax expenditures with little or no justification for them, in my opinion) but not much.

In addition, to addressing the “Zuckerberg problem” of billionaire’s whose labor income embedded in founders’ stock goes untaxed, Gutman provides an example that captures the essential inequity (horizontal flavor) of stepping up basis on death:

A and B are siblings. Each bought Stock X for $100,000. It is now worth $3 million, and each has decided to sell. A meets B in the street outside their broker’s office just after A has executed her trade and before B is going to do the same thing. A car hits them and both die. Assuming a 20 percent income tax rate and no estate tax, B’s heirs receive $2.42 million. A’s heirs get the stock with a new basis of $3 million and can sell it the next day and pocket the entire $3 million. That’s indefensible.

If Congress ever gets serious about dealing with this problem, Gutman’s article is a good roadmap describing how to do it and is an easy, interesting reading for anyone interested in the issue.

Due process restrictions on estate taxation

Since the Supreme Court decision in Kaestner Trust case, serious legal questions lurk about states’ ability to impose income taxes on trusts’ retained income if the trust is not clearly domiciled or managed in the states, even if the settlors or beneficiaries are or were residents. The Court’s opinion mainly reaffirmed, rather than clarifying, the murky status of prior law (a status I mistakenly had thought obsolete because of due process decisions made in other contexts). Thus, the constitutional limits imposed by due process remain unclear, at best. Minnesota is in the middle of this, having lost a somewhat comparable case to Kaestner in the Minnesota Supreme Court (Fielding). Governor Walz’s budget proposes to address that (pp. 20-21) in some way that is not yet clear to me. I’ll wait to see a bill draft.

The challenges posed by Kaestner, however, are not limited to income taxation. Implications for estate and gift taxation also lurk. A November State Tax Notes article by a giant in state taxation, Walter Hellerstein who is a coauthor of the standard treatise, addresses this question. Walter Hellerstein and Andrew Appleby, “State Estate Taxes and the Due Process Clause” Tax Notes State, vol. 98, pp. 771-77 (November 23, 2020). I had put off reading it and was disappointed when I finally got around to doing so. I had hoped Hellerstein and his coauthor would analyze and apply Kaestner but the article largely consists of their summarizing (with some minor commentary) four state tax decisions on states estate taxes and QTIP trusts. Still useful, but less than I had hoped. Oh well. Only one of the opinions explicitly addresses Kaestner’s implications.

The fact patterns of the cases are similar, and all the courts reached the result that the states can tax the QTIPs’ intangible property. QTIP trusts are an estate planning device that operate as follows.  When the first spouse dies a limited interest trust is left to the surviving spouse. Because it is a partial interest, the trust property would not normally qualify for the marital deduction. But because it is “qualified” (QTIP stands for qualified terminal interest property) it does. So, the QTIP is not taxed when the first spouse dies and the survivor gets an income interest. In all the cases, the surviving spouse moved to a different state in which she (all the survivors were women) died. At that point, the QTIP property passed to the ultimate heir(s).

The issue is whether the surviving spouse’s state can tax the QTIP’s intangible property under its estate tax (any physical property would be taxed in the state in which it is located). The survivor’s state’s only connection with the trust was the residency of the income beneficiary under the trust, that is the surviving spouse who died. That is roughly the same pattern as in Kaestner – a beneficiary who was entitled (ultimately) to undistributed income was in the state but the trust retained the income. The state courts all concluded that there was a second transfer when the survivor died and that connection (residence of the second spouse) satisfied due process.  It is not clear to me that that is consistent with Kaestner or how income tax, due process principles map onto estate taxation. Would the first spouse’s state also have authority to tax it upon the second death (to my knowledge no state attempts to do something like that)? (It clearly could on the first death if it had so chosen.) That seems unlikely based on Fielding and probably Kaestner for which the passage of time seems to negate the ability to tax. The time period in Fielding was exceedingly short. The connections of the state of the second spouse seems tenuous too – she/he did not own the property or “make” the transfer.

The bottom line is that this is a murky area and fraught with the potential for litigation with unclear results – particularly in Minnesota with a court that appears to be very protective for these due process principles in dealing with abstract entities like trusts that can be located/administered virtually anywhere – totally separated from where the real life people who established/funded them or who will benefit from them are. The reasoning of Kaestner is an unsatisfying stew of minimum contacts, fair play, formalism, metaphysics, and similar in unclear amounts or weights.

One could easily take the Court’s summary of its holding and conclude that its rationale may apply if the taxing state’s only contact is the residence of the surviving spouse who will get nothing more from the QTIP and who did not her or himself make the transfer being taxed (unless one considers dying to be the same as making a transfer; the first spouse in executing the QTIP in a will or trust document likely made the transfer or the trustee, neither of whom are in the state imposing the tax):

We hold that the presence of in-state beneficiaries alone does not empower a State to tax trust income that has not been distributed to the beneficiaries where the beneficiaries have no right to demand that income and are uncertain ever to receive it.

Slip opinion, p. 7

My general observation is that it would be more straightforward to impose tax (called it an accession, inheritance, or income tax) on the beneficiaries who receive the property, rather than on the estate/trust on the property or transfer. Taxing transfers made at indeterminate times and/or locations is fraught with the potential for endless disputes. Taxing the receipt of property under the income tax (over some basic exemption amount) would eliminate any due process concerns, as well as being simpler and clearer, while avoiding the epithet of being a death tax, perhaps.

PPP loan forgiveness

I have blogged about this issue previously (ad nauseum) as a federal tax issue, making clear my views on its merits (I do not favor exempting the income and allowing the expenses to reduce other income). Since the feds enacted it, it is now up to states to decide whether to conform. It appears likely that the Minnesota Senate is headed down the path of conforming. S.F. No. 268, authored by Senator Bakk, would conform. Since the bill is coauthored by Senators Nelson and Rest, respectively the chair and ranking DFL minority member of the Senate Taxes Committee, it appears that tax leadership of all three caucuses are onboard with conformity, although it is often dangerous to read too much into decisions to coauthor bills. S.F. No. 268 also proposes to allow pass-through entities to elect to file as C corporations to make their state taxes deductible in computing federal income tax. So, that might be a reason Nelson or Rest co-authored the bill, I guess.

In any case, I hope they think more carefully about that or that the House decides to not conform and prevails in conference. To beat a dead horse, the following are some of the reasons why I would opt to not conform:

  • Forgiveness of PPP loans is income just like any other type of income that presumptively should be taxable on horizontal equity grounds. Deviation from that bedrock tax policy principle requires some compelling policy justification. I cannot think of anything compelling, although I recognize the political appeal of giving a tax benefit to businesses suffering from the shutdown and recession. (As an aside, there is plenty of evidence that PPP loans and I presume forgiveness went to businesses who do not appear to be the most deserving candidates for pandemic relief. Some of them have returned the money.)
  • Conforming to federal provisions with weak policy justifications (like exempting PPP loan forgiveness) can be justified on the basis that conformity promotes ease of compliance and administration. That is particularly true for complex, multiyear provisions (like depreciation or retirement plan provisions) that impose ongoing headaches and costs on both taxpayers and the state. Failing to conform on PPP loan forgiveness poses few of those problems – it will require a one-time add-back to AGI or FTI and add modest complexity, as conformity items go. But see caveat below regarding the effects on NOLs.
  • The state budget is likely to be very tight. The current forecast shows a gap of $1.6 billion. Senate leadership has made it clear they oppose tax increases to close the gap, making identifying the highest priorities for either spending or tax cuts more important. The revenue loss from conformity is very large (more than $400 million).  Surely, there are better uses for that money, whether spending for Democrats or better targeted tax cuts for Republicans. In my view, helping individuals or businesses hard hit by the recession and the public health measures but who have not been lucky enough to score a forgivable PPP loan is a higher priority or just maintaining existing government services for that matter (the Senate GOP plans to cut them).
  • It would treat employees and businesses asymmetrically. PPP loans were primarily intended to help employees (“Paycheck Protection” is right in the name) – a good portion of the loans must be used for payroll. Note that the benefiting employees must pay tax on the resulting wages they get from the PPP loans. Why should we exempt the employers/business when the loan’s forgiveness generates profits (net income) from paying tax on that income? That is exactly what both exempting the loan forgiveness and allowing the expenses paid with it to be deducted does. I would think that Republicans – who are regularly subject to the old trope that they favor businesses over employees – would be wary of championing a provision that does exactly that. This really is a just a way of restating the horizontal equity point. So, rather than continue to beat the deceased nag, I’ll stop.

To be somewhat even-handed (my long history as a legislative staffer is hard to shake), some arguments support conformity (aside from its raw political appeal):

  • It is conformity, after all. So, it will help keep the tax simpler and easier to comply with and administer – even if there are better ways to do that. The long-term effect on NOLs is concerning (but not $400 to $500 million worth).
  • It is a one-time provision, so it will not permanently reduce the tax base and impair the state’s ongoing ability to provide services.

DOR has estimated the cost of conformity at $438 million in reduced revenue over the biennium. I do not have much feel for how accurate that estimate is but a couple of points are worth noting about it. DOR assumes that only 32% of businesses receiving PPP loan forgiveness. The rest of them are assumed to not have enough taxable income to immediately benefit. As an aside, it is not clear to me how they reached that conclusion, but it is not out of line with what I would have expected. Two points should be noted about that reality:

  1. Although the revenue loss is one-time, it will be spread over many years. Businesses without sufficient taxable income to use the deduction for PPP paid expenses will have NOL carryovers. So if the current cost is (as DOR estimates) $411 million in Fiscal Year 2022, the 68% remainder could reduce future year taxes by as much as $870 million through NOL deductions. Of course, it won’t be that high because many of the businesses will be unable to use the NOLs because they go out of business or just never generate enough other income use their NOLs. DOR estimates an annual ongoing cost of about $20 million. This ongoing effect tempers my argument that nonconforming is not that complex; many businesses will be untangling their NOLs for years. The future cost will go up if Minnesota conforms to the CARES Act NOL provisions that temporarily repeal TCJA’s NOL haircut.
  2. The fact that about one-third of recipient businesses are estimated to benefit illustrates how poorly targeted this benefit it. These businesses are still profitable, notwithstanding the pandemic’s effects.  Because forgiven PPP loans were used to pay deductible expenses, exempting the loan forgiveness and allowing the deduction reduces the tax on other income. The implication to the contrary (i.e., that businesses that lost money even with the PPP loans would be hit with a tax obligation) at the Senate hearing by testifying business owners is incorrect. The tax is an income, not a gross receipts, tax. Getting a government grant to pay deductible expenses is tax neutral. Exempting the loan forgiveness (grant) and allowing deduction of expenses paid with the loan/grant reduces the tax on other income. To benefit from both the exemption and the deduction, you need income over and above the grant/forgiveness. If your business is otherwise losing money, there will be no tax. It’s as simple as that. I hope the senators understand; I’m not sure they do.
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SALT deduction

I have generally avoided writing about TCJA’s $10,000 limit on the itemized deduction for state and local taxes (SALT). It is one of TCJA’s features that I have mixed feelings about. I have long felt the deduction needed reform or could be repealed outright, but TCJA’s changes were not what was needed (a bit more on that below). However, my Minnesota-centric perspective compels me to briefly note a recent article in Tax Notes Federal,  Alex Zhang, “The State and Local Tax Deduction and Fiscal Federalism,”(Sept. 24, 2020). Unlike most Tax Notes material, it is available free to nonsubscribers.

Zhang is a Yale Law student and the article won Tax Analysts’ (the publisher of Tax Notes) 2020 student writing competition. Zhang has a PhD (in history) from Yale.

Tax policy experts and academics have given the SALT deduction mixed reviews. For example, they criticize it for, among other things, being regressive and allowing deduction of quasi-personal consumption expenditures. Moreover, there isn’t a simple or obvious justification for it. Zhang’s article recounts these arguments in a literature review. His premise is that the deduction can be justified on federalism grounds. Thoughtful defenders of the deduction tend to turn to some variation on federalism for a rationale.

Zhang contends the deduction is useful or a positive feature because it reduces the uneven pattern of the “balance of payments” (federal direct expenditures less federal taxes paid) on a state-by-state basis – essentially it is a sort of leveling tax expenditure. This uneven pattern has been widely recognized in the popular press and by politicians, particularly those representing “loser” states like New York (i.e., ones who pay more in federal tax than they receive in federal expenditures). Zhang quotes some of this rhetoric. What he does not discuss to any extent is why any of this should matter. That seems to me like a flaw, but no matter. This is a student paper.

Zhang compiles state-by-state numbers on the per capita balance of payments, including his estimates of the SALT tax expenditure before and after TCJA’s limit took effect.  He does a sort of “back-of-the-envelop” calculation for the tax expenditure; using a microsimulation model would yield better estimates. Again, no matter this is a law student paper. What leaped out at me, though, was that Minnesota appeared at the top of his estimates for the worst balance of payments under all three of his measures. The Table lists the per capita amounts for the five states with the largest negative balances as calculated by Zhang. The “Expenditures only” column shows the per capita net federal tax collections, less direct expenditures (federal aid, direct payments to individuals, and direct federal operations such as contracts and payroll). The other two columns incorporate Zhang’s SALT tax expenditure estimates.

StateExpenditures onlyExpenditures + SALTExpenditures + post-TCJA SALT
Connecticut(4,562) (3,695) (4,131)
Minnesota(7,189) (6,693) (6,830)
Nebraska(4,023) (3,703) (3,755)
New Jersey(5,192) (4,424) (4,725)
New York(2,436) (1,575) (2,056)
Source: Alex Zhang, “The State and Local Tax Deduction and Fiscal Federalism,”(Sept. 24, 2020).

The numbers for Minnesota are implausible (at least to me). The Rockefeller Institute publishes an annual study (see here for the 2017 version) that calculates annual balance of payment amounts for the 50 states.  It shows Minnesota as more average (a modest balance), not one of the top five “loser” states.  For example, its comparable per capita amount for Minnesota (net of federal expenditures over estimated collections) is a positive $959 (Table 4, p. 15) or an over $8,000 difference from the number Zhang estimated.  

Superficially digging into the numbers, I discovered that Minnesota high number is an artifact of the tax collections or receipts number Zhang used. In making his estimates, he used the Rockefeller Institute estimates of state-by-state federal expenditures but used IRS SOI data for gross collections by state. This caused Minnesota’s amount of federal receipts to go from a $59 billion in the Rockefeller Institute publication to $104 billion in his estimates. He would have been well advised, I think, to use their receipts allocations (see pp. 31 – 33 for their description of how they adjust the IRS numbers). I didn’t try to dig into precisely what inflated Minnesota’s numbers, but assume it is a combination of factors, such as how the IRS reports corporate income tax collections by state. His estimates also caused Nebraska to rise (or drop, depending upon your perspective) in the rankings from tenth (Rockefeller Institute) to fifth largest deficit for about the same reason.

The other Minnesota data point from Zhang’s article that is worth noting is his estimate of the effect of the TCJA’s cutback on the SALT deduction. As I noted above, his estimates are somewhat imprecise since he did not use a microsimulation model like TAXSIM. He calculated them using average marginal rates and distributional data from TPC. In any case, his estimates show that TCJA had a more modest effect on Minnesota than in Connecticut, New Jersey, and New York. He estimates that TCJA reduced the federal SALT deduction tax expenditure in Minnesota by 28%. By contrast, he estimated it reduced New York’s by more than 55%; New Jersey and Connecticut were lower but still higher than Minnesota.  In other words, if he is right, the $10,000 cap had twice the effect in New York that it did in Minnesota.

There is good reason to take this with a grain of SALT. His calculations do not consider the effect of the standard deduction increase or other TCJA changes, aside from the inherent imprecise nature of his calculations. TPC’s state-by-state estimates, available here (see tables A3 and A4 in Appendix) calculated using its microsimulation model, show a much smaller average difference between Minnesota and New York for the effect of reinstating the SALT deduction. The public use database TPC uses for its simulations suppresses or masks the data for the very high income filers (think hedge fund manager and similar in the NYC metro area). That may be a partial factor explaining some of the difference, but I have more faith in TPC’s numbers.

My take

My purpose was just to document what I thought was likely a distortion of Minnesota’s numbers on its balance of payments in Zhang’s calculations. I hope Minnesota readers of Tax Notes (I know there are a fair number of Minnesota tax professionals who are regular readers) are not misled into thinking Minnesota is the biggest loser, so to speak. But I might as well make a couple of more general points about Zhang’s article and on TCJA’s $10,000 SALT limit while I am at it.

Zhang’s article.  My general view is that his underlying premise is misplaced. There is no normative reason for a more even “balance of payments” among the states. To the extent one bothers to make those calculations (politicians are always interested in them – House Research regularly does them for state taxes and aid at the substate levels to satisfy that interest), it does seem appropriate to include tax expenditures, like the SALT deduction, but it is not clear why it should stop at only that tax expenditure. Why not include all tax expenditures? I recognize this would be a herculean task – even for JCT, CBO, or TPC, much less a law student! Just a theoretical observation.

Let’s return to my basic premise that the “evenness” of the distribution seems irrelevant as a policy matter. Federal expenditures can be put into three buckets – grant-in-aid programs (e.g., SNAP and Medicaid), direct payments to individuals (e.g., social security, military retirement, and railroad retirement), and payments for government operations (e.g., the location of military bases and other federal operations). There is no clear reason why any of them should be distributed roughly evenly (per capita) among the states. Consider:

  • If one were designing a federal aid program for states (e.g., how much of Medicaid the feds should pay for a given state), a good distribution will have “winners” (typically states with high need and low capacity to pay) and “losers” (states with low need and high capacity). We should not expect or want an even distribution. Distributing aid per capita would not be the correct policy in most cases.
  • Federal direct benefit programs with mild redistributive patterns should show a similar pattern. For example, take social security. States with a lot of low-income earners and social security recipients will do better than those with disproportionately more high earners. Because social security is mildly redistributive, residents of states with more high-income earners will pay more tax relative to their benefits. Military and railroad retirement programs will reflect where people choose to live/retire. Medicare reimbursement will correlate with health care costs and higher concentrations of the elderly. All of that seems to be desirable policy.
  • Where to locate federal civilian and military installations, which have a big effect on these balance of payments calculations, should be determined on other bases (e.g., where program needs can best be served) and there is no reason to “evenly” distribute them. Of course, we all know that politics is a factor, sometimes a big factor. The southern chairs of congressional committees with jurisdiction over military affairs and spending had a big impact on where military bases were located. But those states also happen serendipitously to often be poor or low-income. So, that political decision may have had some positive redistributive benefits, like a redistributive grant-in-aid program would.

Bottom line: I do not see the relevance of the “evenness” of the balance of payments to the merits of the SALT deduction. It needs to be justified on some other basis.

TCJA’s $10k limit. For some of the reasons put forth by academic critics, I think the SALT deduction is flawed and should be either eliminated or reformed.  While TCJA’s changes failed to improve it, the HEROES Act, which would fully restore it, is also a bad idea.

In my mind, there are two glaring problems (more detail can be found in Zhang’s literature review which contains convenient references to some of the literature) with the pre-TCJA SALT deduction:

  1. Regressivity. Higher income taxpayers are both more likely to itemize deductions and to pay more SALT. They are also subject to higher federal income tax rates, yielding more tax savings from the deduction. As a result, they disproportionately benefit, making the deduction regressive. That would not be a problem if the deduction served another purpose, such as accurately measuring ability to pay (income) or encouraging states or local governments to provide appropriate levels of taxation and public services. But there is no basis for concluding it serves either purpose.
  2. SALT payments as personal consumption. The reason why the deduction does not serve those purposes is that SALT payments are at least partially a form of personal consumption, which should not be deductible. This is particularly true for property taxes. Homeowners choose where to live (buy a house) and effectively how much property tax they will pay. Buying a larger or higher quality house or a home in a location with good schools and local amenities (e.g., better city services) results in higher property taxes. This is clearly a decision that has strong elements of a consumption choice. If one concludes that the national government needs to nudge or stimulate local governments to tax more to provide more or better services (a federalism rationale occasionally advanced for the deduction), one would certainly not conclude that doing so should provide the biggest benefit to communities whose residents own expensive houses and have high incomes. That is precisely what the deduction does as it applies to property taxes. The relationship is weaker for state taxes and weakest for progressive state income taxes and that policy problem with their deductibility is less (at least in my mind).

So, do TCJA’s changes fix that problem? It is hard for me to make that case or, at least, the problem could have been addressed more effectively in other ways.

On the positive side, with its relatively low ($10K) limit, TCJA dramatically reduced the ill effects of the deduction. It eliminates most of the benefit to very high-income filers, particularly those in high tax states, and reduced much of its regressivity as a result. But it does so in a blunderbuss way.

On the negative side, its pernicious effects remain for homeowners in low tax states (e.g., those without income taxes) and average to modestly above average value homes. They can continue to deduct all or most of their property taxes, which are sensitive to the level of public services, including quality of the schools, that they opt for. By contrast, the much higher standard deduction makes the deduction irrelevant for lower to middle income homeowners. Moreover, the $10k limit has a stiff marriage penalty since it is the same for single, head of household, and married joint filers. When two single taxpayers marry, their combined deduction gets cut in half (a surprising structure for a GOP proposal, I would observe as an aside).

TCJA preserved and slightly enhanced the deductibility of charitable contributions.  SALT payments have many of the same characteristics as charitable contributions – a commonality that is reflected in the attempts by several states to use ersatz charitable contributions as work-around to the SALT limits. Those efforts were quashed administratively by the IRS, correctly in my opinion. But TCJA’s incongruity in the treatment of charitable contributions and SALT payments leads to my final negative observation about TCJA’s SALT limit: it is hard not to conclude that the provision was the result of unseemly political motivation – i.e., the GOP Congress’s desire to punish high tax, blue states. Why else would they leave/enhance the charitable contribution deduction? By itself that motivation should be irrelevant, but it does help to poison the tax legislative process, something to be discouraged.

In that context, it would have taken little effort to come up with a better fix. A simple fix would be to eliminate the deductibility of homeowner property taxes and/or all local taxes. That is where the problem of SALT payments constituting de facto consumption is greatest. It would put homeowners and renters on more equal footing (ignoring the mortgage interest deduction). Because the property tax is universal, it would affect all states more or less equally.

An obvious political objection will be that disallowing only property taxes favors states with income taxes, especially those that rely heavily on them. Nine states do not impose income taxes. (They are all red or purple states, except Washington.) That likely means that their property taxes are higher than in states with income taxes. Put another way, some portion of state income taxes help reduce property taxes. Thus, it may be perceived to be unfair to allow full deductibility of income taxes if property taxes are not deductible. To address that, the income tax deduction could be made subject to an AGI floor (e.g., the first 3% of AGI paid in state and local income taxes could be disallowed). The theory would be that a basic level of income taxes in those states is a substitute for property taxes in states without income taxes. Moreover, it seems very unlikely that people choose to live in a state because it has a progressive or high-income tax. In fact, the conventional wisdom is exactly the opposite – it repels them. So it is unlikely that state income taxes are even close to a quasi-consumption good and a good argument could be made that the progressive element of a state income tax is fully involuntary and thereby should be allowed as an adjustment to income or ability to pay.

Opponents will argue that allowing a deduction for only income taxes will skew state tax decisions, which is an unfair and non-neutral federal intrusion into state and local tax decisions. There is empirical support for the proposition that there will be modest effect on the mix of taxes that states and localities opt for (more income taxes in this case), but not on the overall level of tax and spending. See, e.g., Gilbert Metcalf, Assessing the Federal Deduction for State and Local Tax Payments, NBER Working Paper 14023 (August 2008). That should not be considered a fatal flaw; encouraging a modest amount of progressivity in state taxes seems a reasonable policy given the inexorable growth of inequality over the last 30 years. The alternative is states deemphasizing their progressive income taxes to mitigate concerns over flight of their high-income residents to states with more favorable tax structures. In the long-term, allowing a deduction for a portion of income taxes could help offset some of the regressive effects of eliminating TCJA’s SALT limit.

Finally, this limited deduction for a portion of state income taxes above a basic amount would provide some parity in the treatment of SALT payments and charitable contributions. Conceptually it is difficult for me to see why help for the poor, for example, should be subsidized when done as charitable contributions but not as SALT payments, especially progressive income taxes. See Daniel Hemel, The State-Charity Disparity Under the 2017 Tax Law, 58 Washington University Journal of Law & Policy 189 (2019) for the rationale for treating SALT payments and charitable contributions similarly.

My scheme, of course, would have served none of the congressional GOP’s motivation in passing TCJA’s SALT deduction limit, other than to provide revenue to offset TCJA’s other tax reductions.  And it would be perceived to favor blue states, like California, Minnesota, New York, and Oregon, a death sentence in a Congress where the Republicans have a say. It should have some attraction to the Dems, but they are likely simply fixated on reversing TCJA’s limit. Even in the unlikely event that Biden is president, they command majorities in both houses, and abolish the filibuster, I assume they would listen to the entreaties of their members of Congress representing low- or no-income tax states, rejecting the idea. So, even though it has a reasonable policy justification and is a better approach than the HEROES Act restoration it will be a political nonstarter.  Sigh.

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